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Covid-19: Early analysis suggests Omicron variant spreading twice as fast as Delta

According to a preliminary investigation released on Friday, the Omicron variation of the Covid-19 virus is spreading twice as rapidly as the Delta variety. Since the variant's discovery, scientists have asserted that it shown increased transmissibility (the ability to spread fast within communities). This conclusion was reached based on the quick increase in cases (especially in Gauteng, where the epidemic originated), sequencing data, and the mutational profile of the surge.See the source image

Recent mathematical study bolsters this issue.

The Delta variety was responsible for the third wave of infections in South Africa and a global outbreak in numerous countries. However, it is unknown if Omicron will eventually supplant Delta as the main form. Scientists are still learning about the variation and have said that although their investigations will take time, findings should be available this month. According to the World Health Organization, Omicron has been detected in more than 30 nations.

Calculating the R value

The most recent investigation included scientists from the South African Covid-19 Modelling Consortium. Carl Pearson, a mathematical modeller at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, was the project's leader. The researchers examined Covid cases throughout South Africa's nine provinces and calculated the variant's R value (a measure of a disease's spreadability). The R value of Omicron was found to be roughly 2.5 times that of Delta.See the source image

According to Tom Wenseleers, an evolutionary biologist at Belgium's Catholic University of Leuven, Omicron may infect three to six times as many individuals as Delta. Pearson expressed optimism on Twitter that researchers worldwide would be able to utilize the team's results to prepare effectively for a spike in cases this month.

Nonetheless, early doors

The findings have not yet been peer-reviewed. The researchers noted that more study into how Omicron affects the virus's behavior is necessary. There is still some doubt, for example, about the degree to which the variation may evade protection, the scientists stated. According to Pearson, experts are unsure if Omicron's fast spread is related to its infectious nature or its ability to avoid the immune system.

"It's conceivable that it's even less transmissible than Delta," he remarked.

Additionally, it is unknown if the variation results in more severe illness than Delta. On Sunday, the team tweeted that Gauteng and Mpumalanga were in the fourth wave and that six other provinces were also seeing a spike in infections.

Omicron, re-infection risk

AFP noted that in the same week, South African researchers published the first epidemiological evidence that Omicron is capable of evading past infection immunity, leaving many individuals in the nation who had already acquired Covid exposed to reinfection. "Recent reinfections have occurred in patients whose first infections occurred throughout all three waves, with the majority occurring during the Delta wave," Dr Juliet Pulliam, head of the South African DSI-NRF Centre of Excellence in Epidemiological Modeling and Analysis, tweeted.See the source image

The team is now investigating Omicron's capacity to evade vaccine-induced immunity. While many scientists predict that vaccinations will be unable to provide 100% protection against illness, they will continue to provide protection against hospitalization and mortality. Booster dosages, on the other hand, will almost certainly be required for individuals at high risk of serious sickness, such as those aged 60 years and older, as well as those with immunocompromised conditions. This offer was recently extended to the latter group, as well as to healthcare professionals who got their first J&J dosage as part of the Sisonke trial, in December.

South African Health Products Regulatory Authority (Sahpra) is now considering Pfizer's application for approval of a booster dosage for the remainder of the population aged 18 years and older.

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Covid-19: Early analysis suggests Omicron variant spreading twice as fast as Delta | Health24 (news24.com)

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