Eskom has published its summer load shedding forecast for 2021/2022, with the power utility warning that its system is likely to remain severely constrained for the near future.
Presenting its system outlook on Monday (25 October), Eskom’s Group Executive for Transmission, Segomoco Scheppers, said that this is as a result of known issues such as high demand and planned maintenance, as well as problems with the Medupi power plant, which had led to over 1,800MW of power being taken offline.
He added that most of Eskom’s coal power stations are operating past the midway of their operational life, resulting in high levels of breakdowns.
This is reflected in Eskom’s outlook for the next 18 months, which shows that the power utility will rely heavily on diesel usage to meet its operational requirements.The result of the analysis looking at the period ahead to August of 2022 shows that for the Summer period, we believe that in the base case, we could have one day of load shedding at stage 1. But that will be contingent on potentially spending R2.5 billion in Open Cycle Gas Turbines,” Scheppers said.
However, he noted that this scenario was next to impossible to achieve, as South Africa has already had over ten days of load shedding since the start of September.
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